Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Jan 2019 Intel Optane Revenue Update

At 2018 Flash Memory Summit we presented models for 3D XPoint/Optane revenue, costs, performance and endurance. We update these here.

In the 6 months since, Intel has updated product roadmaps and has provided details on the Optane DIMMS. New projections are based on these changes

Revenue From FMS2018 and this Blog

Most likely 2018 sales did not quite meet expectations. DIMMs sales were fairly low pre-production (read: Samples). Non DIMM SSDs sell but at lower prices and in lower volumes than expected.

2020 Still can meet our projections from FMS.... but Intel is off to a slow start in 2019

  • Cascade lake and volumes are later and lower than planned. 
  • Attach rate projection for Optane DIMM to cascade lake was low and we lowered it even more based on customer reports and timing. Also Intel showed and we reviewed in this blog that when used as main memory expansion, Optane DIMM is not persistent. To be persistent it is a separate memory block... More like a SSD on the DRAM bus.
  • Server DRAM Demand is down, prices are down. This is not good for 2019
  • The Lehi Factory is in transition to Micron ownership. Intel has plans on how to ramp XPoint internally but those are in progress most of 2019.
  • Optane Memory for desktops has not taken off. Intel now plans notebook version with Optane Memory + QLC SSD which we have shown to be a cost effective performance SSD.
Unless Intel gives us data at Persistent Memory Summit or in Earnings announcement, we have to model the revenue (Intel can always correct me!). We project 2019 to be below the 2018/2020 midpoint by about $100M in DIMMs and overall Optane revenue in 2019 to be about $200M below 2018/2020 Midpoint. Micron will have no measurable revenue in 2019. As you can see, the revenue is based on DIMM sales, if those continue to slip, the numbers will get lower and competition is enabled

We have detailed data on GB shipments, DIMM vs SSD sales, Pricing, Cost, performance and endurance for 3D XPoint and Optane. We also can discuss the JV agreement changes and implications. Call to discuss. We will be at 2019 Persistent Memory Summit this week to discuss details as well

Mark Webb

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