Monday, August 19, 2019

Memory Pricing Update and Models August 2019



One of the most common questions these days is “what will happen on pricing”. No one knows for sure and wild reaction to news articles is adding to the speculation









Some thoughts on pricing models

  • DRAM exchange/ Inspectrum is usually directionally correct, but wrong in magnitude and in absolute numbers when comparing to actual company ASP
    • Spot pricing is open market and not related to what major customers pay
    • Customers react differently in magnitude to increases and decreases in exchange price
    • Even contract price is not REAL contract price and does not match company ASPs
  • Over time prices drop … A lot … in a balanced market, we model 25% per year for NAND and 15% per year for DRAM going forward. This is FAR lower than historical memory pricing (35%+) and matches cost expectations.
  • Actual Pricing is a response to market growth, Inventory, and customer relationships. We can discuss how to track these
  • the number one input to memory company profits is pricing.... so anything they can do (legally hopefully) to get pricing to increase will help memory companies. Unfortunately or fortunately, they are just not very good a collusion! but there are legal tactics that they do all the time.
  • Cost for each company matters. One model is that pricing always drops til at least one company loses money. Today, not all memory companies have the same cost. in 2021, there will be even larger differences in cost with different leaders
Where are we today?:

  • We had a shortage of NAND and DRAM through about Q4 2017 and Q3 2018 respectively. Since then both are in major oversupply. Inventory at customers and suppliers skyrocketed. We can explain why this happened and when it will happen again.
  •  Well publicized supply limitations (power outage, Japanese chemicals, Reduced wafer starts) have people optimistic on pricing. All of these require discussion to see if they matter and how much. Remember: lowering wafers starts is a horrible business idea.... unless you tell everyone you are doing it!
  •  Dramexchange has reported spot NAND price increases, contract price decreases, wafer price increases.  This actually all makes sense. We have input from suppliers and customers and where they see the market and strategies. It is a cyclical market, prices will go up WHEN there is a shortage. We have a model on when this will happen across the board as reported by real companies. We also tell you how to monitor it


So lots of people will report where pricing is today (Dramexchange and Inspectrum are good starts). The key is how to monitor this in the next 3 months, 6 Months, 1 year and 2 years and why each company may not see the same effects. Contact us for more information

Mark Webb
MKW Ventures Consulting







Thursday, August 8, 2019

3D Xpoint Revenue and Bit Output

We presented bit output and revenue projections for 3D Xpoint at Flash Memory Summit this week. See details below











To calculate this, we modeled Fab wafer capacity, factory loading percentage, yields, die size, cost, pricing, etc and how those are projected to change over the next few years.

Charts are below, full presentation is on our website and Flash Memory Summit site. The full details on all of the parameters going into the model are available to clients

GB Output Projections:









3D Xpoint Revenue Projections:











See presentations for more info. Call to set up meeting to discuss monthly updates to 3D XPoint output, revenue, and status on 2nd Generation 3D Xpoint.

Mark Webb
www.mkwventures.com

See ALL Reports at www.mkwventures.com/reports.html




Wednesday, August 7, 2019

What's the Best Approach to Persistent Memory at FMS

I will be hosting a panel session on "What is the Best Approach to Persistent Memory" at Flash Memory Summit, Thursday at 2:10PM in Room GAMR 2. On the Panel we will have


  • Rahul Advani, Netlist, VP Marketing
  • Bill Leszinske, Retired Corporate VP from Intel NVM Solutions Group
  • Arthur Sainio, Smart Modular, Director Product Marketing
  • Pankaj Bishnoi, Everspin, Director of Business Development


We will discuss what the future of Persistent Memory is and what forms it will take. What is the memory, what is the speed, what is the density, how will we access it?

Stop by and bring you tough questions for the panel!

Mark Webb
MKW Ventures Consulting
www.mkwventures.com



Thursday, August 1, 2019

Mark Webb, MKW Ventures at FMS 2019

 I will have a number of presentations at Flash Memory Summit this year. I also look forward to meeting with industry leaders and people who want to develop a better understanding of Memory, Storage, Markets, and which technologies will dominate the next 10 years. I will have updated NAND technology roadmaps and the costs for each company for 2018-2022 and update on where China is positioned in  NAND and DRAM technology.




MRAM Developer Day and Preconference Aug 5th

  • Persistent Memory Preconference seminar: I will present an overview of persistent memory, applications, changes over the past year and my forecast for revenue over the next 5+ years. Persistent Memory is here and is real today Monday 8:30-Noon. Rm 206
  •  MRAM Developer Day: We have a panel of experts presenting what the future of MRAM will be and how we will get there. I like to say that MRAM is a tale of two markets. Embedded and discrete with two sets of success criteria and two sets of challenges Monday 5-6PM Great America Room


Flash Memory Summit Aug 6-8, 2019

  •  PMEM-102-1: Persistent Memory Part 2: Software and Applications Tuesday at 3:40. Market overview of Persistent Memory, Markets, revenue and what is needed to achieve the large CAGR that we are predicting. What has changed in the last year and what has not advanced like we hoped
  • NEWM-102B-1: Annual Update on Emerging Memory Technologies Tuesday at 4.55. Here I will present a 1 hour presentation on the status of multiple new memories. What the advantages and disadvantages are for each. We have lots of new memories that have made progress, we will show where they stand on the Product Lifecycle for NVM. Some are shipping today with billions in revenue predicted. Some are 5-10 years from being in an actual product that you can buy. Bring your question on every memory technology
  • “Chat with Experts Table”  (Tuesday 7PM). I will be hosting the table on 3D XPoint technology. Come ask questions and discuss the breakthrough memory, what is costs, how it is used, how and where it is made and when the competitors will join the fun.
  • NEWM-201-1: 3D XPoint: Current Implementations and Future Trends Wednesday at 8:30AM. I will show new applications in the last year, Costs compared to other technologies, Updated revenue forecast, Bit shipments in 2019 and 2020 including Gen 2 Xpoint, Speed, Endurance. Plus address how development will move forward after the Intel/Micron breakup
  •  PMEM-302A-1: What’s the Best Approach to Persistent Memory Today…and Tomorrow? Thursday at 2:10. I am hosting this panel session with experts on persistent memory to present what the future looks like and how will it change computing.
Call or text to set up a meeting and review the information 1:1

Mark Webb
www.mkwventures.com