Monday, January 20, 2020

5 Things to Look for in Persistent Memory this week!



With Persistent Memory Summit coming up this week, I am posting Five items for people to look for in evaluating persistent memory solutions and trends. I will be at the Summit so please feel free to argue with me in person!









  • A couple years back at the PM summit, Jim Pappas was adamant on stating that persistent memory is here today, right now, and is not a mythical future item (which it really had been for many years). I love that focus. There is enough real stuff to look at without getting sucked into tomorrow’s possible technology. Review where NVDIMMS, RDMA/NVMoF, Optane/3D XPoint, etc are today and how they are being implemented. We can discuss the mythical future technologies afterward over drinks!
  • At Flash memory summit, we provided our definition of persistent memory which references a PM summit paper from 2 years back. The key is that it needs to be persistent, it needs to be accessed like memory and it has to have a reasonable, memory like, latency. I love fast SSDs, but fast SSDs and virtual memory mapping are not persistent memory (IMHO). Look for true PM attributes and applications.
  • Intel has put a tremendous amount of work and marketing into Optane DIMMS (Apache Pass, Optane DC persistent memory). Cascade lake has many skus to take advantage of these and Intel has product availability and inventory to support it. Sales of Optane and the use of true PM (app direct mode) is a test case for future market revenue projections. Look for what Intel and their customers are saying about sales and ramp of Optane DC PM. We projected in August 2019 that Intel DC PM sales (DIMMS only) would grow from $700M in 2020 to >$2B in 2024. It FEELS like Intel is slow to meet that revenue projection… but lets see what Intel says when asked (Hint: Earnings announcement is same time)!
  • Intel builds on a custom protocol and uses its memory controller to manage persistent memory. The rest of the industry has protocols planned for a more open architecture. NVDIMM-P, CCIX, GenZ, OpenCAPI, CXL are proposed to allow multiple technologies to achieve memory like access and speeds. How are those doing and who is implementing solutions today? Who will win?
  • Applications! Everyone is looking for the killer app…. We know of some specific applications of persistent memory (large datasets, quick recovery from reboot, journaling info) but what are the applications that will make is so that 50% of servers MUST have persistent memory? Look for the volumes required and the timing for those.

As you would expect, we have summaries and opinions for most of these topics and more topics like cost, pricing, technology timing and scaling, revenue, etc. Please call or text to discuss.

Mark Webb








Friday, January 10, 2020

Memory Pricing: Myth, Math, and Reality



With the bottoming of the memory market and reports of NAND price and DRAM price increases, People want to know how all these numbers pan out. No one knows for sure...  But…there are some market forces and reasons why numbers vary







Updated thoughts on pricing models and how to interpret

  • Memory is a commodity. Period. 
  • DRAM exchange/ Inspectrum is usually directionally correct, but wrong in magnitude and in absolute numbers when comparing to actual company ASP
    • Spot pricing is open market and not related to what major customers pay
    • Customers react differently in magnitude to increases and decreases in exchange price
    • Even reported contract price is not REAL contract price and does not match company ASPs
    • Apple does not pay more in price because the exchange price increases unless they think they cannot get shipments. They prefer to get companies into a bidding war. When prices drop, large companies do expect suppliers to cut price…. With or without a pricing contract. And they usually do because it means there is excess supply
  • Exchange prices and analyst reports are often for a particular part. That part may increase in price but because it did, people bought a different, cheaper part.
    • Hypothetical example: Hynix 256Gbit TLC, 64L NAND price increases 5%. But the recently introduced 512Gbit TLC, 96L Gbit is 15% lower price per Gbit. And the 512Gbit 96L QLC part is 20% low price per Gbit. End result: analyst reported NAND price went up. Hynix company ASP dropped 10%. Both are true.
    • Confirmation example: In 2017/18 Micron did not report any annual NAND price increase. In fact, ASP dropped 7% in F2017, 8% in F2018. Similar data for other companies… Yet most people will still tell you NAND prices went up 30-50% during that time. DRAM did Increase 50% during that time for Micron.....  However all exchange prices show 100% price increase
  • Actual pricing is a response to market growth, Inventory, and customer relationships. We can discuss how to track these and some basic conversion factors from exchange price to ASP.
  • The number one input to memory company profits is pricing.... so anything they can do (legally hopefully) to get pricing to increase will help memory companies. Unfortunately or fortunately, they are just not very good a collusion! but there are legal tactics that they do all the time.
  • Cost for each company matters. One model is that pricing always drops til at least one company loses money. Today, not all memory companies have the same cost. In 2021, there will be differences in cost with different leaders than 2019.
Where are we today?:

  • We had a shortage of NAND and DRAM through about Q4 2017 and Q3 2018 respectively. Since then both were in major oversupply. Inventory at customers and suppliers skyrocketed. Reports are that inventories are now nearing target. Suppliers report shortages on some line items.
  •  Well publicized supply limitations (power outage, Fires, Japanese chemicals, Reduced wafer starts) have people optimistic on pricing. DXI skyrocketed. All of these require discussion to see if they matter and how much.
  • Dramexchange has reported spot NAND price increases since April 2019, We are just now seeing companies report modest price increase (they are ALL losing money in NAND so they need to increase price).  Dramexchange has started to report spot DRAM price increases in the last 30 days.
  • It is a cyclical commodity market. (did I mention this before????)

So lots of positive reports on pricing these days. The key is how much will companies see and will it last. We track all of the metrics and can discuss how these impact different companies
 

Mark Webb
MKW Ventures Consulting



Thursday, December 19, 2019

Thoughts on Micron FQ1 Earnings Announcement

Micron announced earnings last night and gave updates on DRAM, 3D XPoint and NAND. Overall numbers were close to estimates. Guidance for FQ2 (Dec-Feb) were lower revenue and earnings due to seasonality. Some interesting items in the presentations.









Some Thoughts:

1) Micron increased NAND bits shipped significantly with slightly increased price. This is a positive. Often we see a big increase in bits at lower price ("we sold out") or flat trend in bit shipments at increased price ("we held out"). Since Micron and the industry overall is losing money on NAND, the prices need to be flat or increasing to get the market healthy. This is a good sign to get to break even and pay for development.

2) Micron continues to press forward on new DRAM technologies. For all the hype about 1Z, the fact is that most of the worlds bits are shipped on 1X or higher. Micron states they they will cross over to have most bits on 1Z/1Y in the next year. A recent Techinsights presentation also stated that Micron is about caught up with Samsung on cell size on new technologies. This has been a push from Sanjay since taking over and is a big success.

3) Earnings are expected to drop again in FQ2 for Micron due to seasonality and Sanjay stated that he is "optimistic" that this will be the financial bottom for Micron. The question is how fast will the upcycle improve and how good will it get this time. In case you were wondering, memory is a cyclical business for mathematical reasons that can be shown with an excel spreadsheet (it has a inherent root cause). For significant increase in earnings, we need to see higher memory prices in 2020. Which requires a shortage of memory. Which requires elimination of some inventory. Which requires supply growth lower than demand growth.

4) Micron floated some interesting number on the future of memory industry. DRAM Bit growth will be 15% in 2020, vs 20% in 2019. NAND Bit growth will be 30% in 2020 vs 40% in 2019. <20% ("mid to high teens") and 30% growth for DRAM and NAND respectively will be the future CAGR. These numbers are lower than historical but are becoming consistent from each supplier. Micron also states that DRAM bits per server will grow 20%  per year. All of these numbers include all of the hyped buzzword technologies. (AI, ML, Neuromorphic, 5G, Autonomous, etc). So again it is nice to have consistent bit growth numbers to plug into spreadsheets (with scenarios as well)

5) Micron gave some updates on NVM technology. Micron announced the X100 3D XPoint SSD earlier in the year and we gave our analysis of how this is built, components, and what the ramp might look like. Other than that, Micron was vague and discussed 3D Xpoint as a promising technology to be developed over the next few years. Micron also announced actions to deal with 3D XPoint which they said is declining in production volume and causing underload charges. At FMS, we presented details on 3D XPoint revenue and manufacturing for the next few years and we have new details since August and what Micron specific impact might be.

On the NAND side, Micron reiterated that 128L will be replacement gate and will have limited ramp on select products by end of Fiscal 2020. Until then, Micron will use existing technologies to support NAND sales. This is a great way to ramp a new technology but IF there is an upturn, it leads to problems on how (or if) to spend capex to meet increased demand... spend on old or new (unproven) technologies.

We give clients inputs on how to monitor all of this and whether actions and reports by companies are supporting or changing the models. Plus we have detailed cost models for all technologies comparing each company.

Mark Webb
www.mkwventures.com






Wednesday, December 4, 2019

5 Thoughts on China Memory Progress, December Edition


Recent headlines highlight ChangXin Memory (CXMT) plans to ramp manufacturing and also referenced YMTC plans in NAND. Lets “fact check” the status and announcements.










Chinese and all memory companies make optimistic claims stating 10’s of Billions have been spent. They show cartoons of factories that don’t exist yet or are empty. These claims are easy to challenge as companies track shipments to China and China reports equipment delivered by area. So it is very easy to verify the actual amount of capex and model where it is going. Lots of money is going into Chinese owned memory companies but it is no where close to $30B yet and there are not significant shipments yet.

  • Report: CXMT is running 19nm DRAM in production at 20K wafer per month and will ramp to 60K by end of 2020.  Production was started in September
    •   Facts: We know based on shipping reports that CXMT is spending $200-250M per month on tools. We know that this is roughly on pace to tool out 1/3 of a large fab. CXMT will have tools to run 20K wafer per month soon and is on pace to ramp those tools to a 40K per month pace at least. The hype over the last 2 years is becoming a reality… it’s a real fab with real tools now!
  • Report: YMTC is running 10-20K wafer per month of NAND and will quadruple output in 2020.
    • Facts: YMTC/Tsinghua is among the leaders in hype in the past. They were supposed to have technologies shipping for the past two years and have shipped little so far.
    • Facts: YMTC is also taking tool shipments at a high pace. 2018 showed tool deliveries of ~$1B dropping dramatically at the end before resuming in June 2019 at a $200M/month pace. We will revisit the plans to quadruple output by end of 2020 but it is possible with current spending level if it continues through 2020
  • Report CXMT has production 19nm technology being used for LPDDR4.
    • Facts: CXMT has made a number of public statement so we don’t need to guess. The technology is based on Qimonda, they hired former Qimonda people as well as people with DRAM experience from Samsung, Micron, and Hynix presumably. So they have a technology and some expertise
    • Rumor (or Alternative Facts!): A recent report online stated that the yields on this technology are very low and this was confirmed with other sources. This is to be expected but they might have some work to do
  •  Report: YMTC Technology is 64L Xstacking and will ramp to 128L in 2020.
    • Facts: We know they are installing equipment and sources state that have low volume and they are sampling some 64L. The technology might not be competitive but if they get shipments out and supply local customers, then profits don’t matter at this time. 
  • SUMMARY PREDICTION (Facts, Alternative Facts, Rumors):
    • CXMT and YMTC have their initial fab line set up and are ramping with large tool deliveries. This is new! They plan to ramp to 60K+ wafers per month by end of 2020. Both are running technologies that are not mature and are probably 1 year plus from maturity. We also have no public samples of either technology (despite my attempts to buy them!)
    • CXMT and YMTC Combined will be less than 2% of the bits shipped end of 2020
    • CXMT and YMTC Combined will be 5% of the bits shipped end of 2025
Help needed: Samples from either technology! THANKS!

Mark Webb
www.mkwventures.com




Monday, December 2, 2019

Status of Emerging Memories and Cost Update




Status of Emerging Memory Technologies. No more guessing, Reality is here!
Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting

The time for discussing possible or theoretical emerging memories is past. We have new technologies that are ready for implementation TODAY. We also have technologies being developed that could reach implementation soon. The key is to know the reality and trade-offs of available technologies today and to track the status and time to market of other technologies.







Cost for Memory Technologies in 2019 and 2020 (LOG Scale required!)



We have costs, revenue, cell sizes, performance metrics for ReRAM, PCM (3D Xpoint) and MRAM technologies today. Plus, we have a Product Lifecycle Model that shows where additional technologies are today, when they can be expected to sell in volume and what the milestones are along the way. Nanotube RAM, Ferro-electric RAM, ReRAM modifications and MRAM modifications are technologies that are being developed.

Some topics to discuss:
  • There is no universal memory in existence or even in development. There are always tradeoffs
  • Emerging memories being implemented today are not at the theoretical performance, cost, or density shown in marketing presentations. The reality is still useful, but we need to understand the actual performance to determine applications. We have details on this
  • Nothing is proposed to replace DRAM or NAND in the next 5-10 years so far. DRAM will not be replaced by MRAM and NAND will not be replaced by ReRAM. In 2020, More bits will be added to both NAND and DRAM supply than all emerging memories combined.
  • Embedded memory and stand alone memory have very different solutions and business models. Some technologies work well for one versus another.
  • The financial model of how to bring emerging memories to volume production has changed dramatically in the past two years. Foundries and Wafer fab equipment manufacturers have changed the environment so that we can achieve the scale needed.
  • Which technology from which company will win? We have evaluations of each on our Product Life Cycle and show how you can monitor them over time.


We will be at IEDM in San Francisco/Bay Area Dec 7-13.  Call or Email to set up meeting to discuss how these technologies will impact markets and how some other projections are based on myths, not reality.

Mark Webb




Thursday, October 31, 2019

Memory Market Results for Oct 31 (Trick or Treat) and What’s Normal


Memory Market Results for Oct 31 (Trick or Treat) and What’s Normal
We have the results in from a variety of manufacturers and can state what is going on in the market. We have all the details on individual companies and why they are behaving like they are






Summary:
DRAM: All companies reported higher bit sales and much lower ASPs. Average ASP dropped mid teens  (remember when people thought prices would go up in Q3?). inventory is still pretty high

Reason: manufacturers are trying to get rid of bits, customers are taking advantage of low prices to build inventory. Datacenter/enterprise is back to growth and mobile looked pretty good. Prices dropped much more than costs so margins continue to shrink.

So DRAM is heading to 20% annual bit growth like predicted by everyone. But price drops will mean margins are continuing to drop. But at least DRAM is still making money despite lower margins.

NAND: Micron and Samsung reported higher bit sales on continued price drops. NAND is not a profitable business so prices must rise or flatten to actually make money. WDC reported flat pricing (they were claiming 10% higher prices in July) and Hynix reported mid single digit price increase on modest bits sales. And Inventory is still pretty high

Reason: Companies are behaving differently with respect to how they manage this and how aggressive to be given continued high inventory. You need to lower prices to move inventory. But you need to raise prices to be profitable. You need to move to 96L/12x layer to lower costs. But this increases capex and increase supply. This paradox will all sort out by 2H 2020… but it will be a competition until them.

NAND is a battle between working off inventory and trying to get profitable. Hynix and Samsung are behaving very differently on this. As are Micron and WDC. NAND will hit 40% bit growth as predicted by everyone but the margins are poor.


So what does balanced and normal look like? (Normal will happen in mid to late 2020)

DRAM price drops by 5% per quarter. Bits shipped increase by 5% per quarter. Costs drop by 5% per quarter. Inventory is flat (target is 4-6 weeks at supplier)
NAND price drops by 7% per quarter. Bits shipped increase by 8-10% per quarter. Costs drop by 7% per quarter. Inventory is flat (target is 6-8 weeks at supplier)

PREDICTION: We have data on who will win in this and who has challenges… And what recent Earnings reports mean…. And when inventory will be worked off…. And when Chinese companies will make a difference.  AND We have costs for everyone, so that will help determine winner.

Mark Webb
www.mkwventures.com



Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Preliminary Numbers on YMTC Xstacking 64L 256Gbit Chip



One of our top area of analysis is chip cost for all memory chips and even SOCs/logic chips. We are adding 64L YMTC chip to our report that has costs for all NAND memory from each company from 64L to 1xx layers.









High level Summary:

The chips size takes advantage of xstacking with periphery and array on top of each other. To a first order the chip is similar size to Microns 64L part. The reason YMTC chose chip bonding is to control logic processing and performance separate from array processing on separate wafers and then bonding them together. Having array built on top of the periphery does impact the periphery but Micron and others have been successful doing just that. YMTC claims to get much better NAND performance from the Xstacking process.

The down side is that you have two wafers, the cost to bond them together and the complexity of running a two process system. We will also see how Xstacking works in 8 die and 16 die packages needed for SSDs.

The cost, when mature, is modeled to be 34% higher than Microns 64L CMOS under array part. Since YMTC is not shipping volume yet and the Fab is projected to be less than 10K wafer per month currently, the actual cost is pretty far from maturity. We have the cost today, and how it will track over time as it ramps. We also have 128L projected costs for YMTC (and all other companies). We include die size, wafer costs, wafer yields, die yields, bonding cost and how these change over time.
We also have the business model on how this is still a win for Chinese industry, assuming they can ramp production. And how this impact NAND pricing and markets in the future.


The volume will be very small to start but, assuming the reported information is correct, we should see Xstacking chips in products in the next several months.

Mark Webb