Thursday, December 1, 2016

Update on FMS 2016 Predictions Part 1

At Flash Memory Summit (FMS) 2016, I was on a panel making predictions. its been over 3 months... Update part 1

SSD cost/GB drop 25% per year (On track!) 
Prices 25% or more  (Off track for now... but just wait... )
TLC becomes dominant in all SDDs 
Client and Enterprise/Datacenter (On track! ... Most SSDs in development today for both enterprise and Client are TLC)
Cloud/Hyperscale becomes dominate SSD market (On track. They are building tons of SSDs that are not counted in most market statistics)
Formfactors cost optimized for SSD applications
M.2 for all applications (On track. Client is there, Datacenter is work on implementations)
BGA for Phone/ultramobile, Notebooks (On track … Multiple Example Notebooks from multiple SSD vendors in 2017. Then market acceptance in 2018+)

SCM memory has multiple suppliers and technologies for >$1B market (On track … in 2018/19 ... but the winner might not be who you were expecting)

Mark Webb

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