In our FMS paper on NAND costs for all vendors and all technologies, we showed how NAND bit costs are being reduced as we go from 64L to 256L. We also showed that equipment companies and Fabs are improving efficiency much faster than we expected. We also showed that QLC will grow to over 50% of bits by 2025 and that this will lead to cost reduction.
As a result, ACTUAL NAND bit costs are on track to drop ~20% per year if we continue the increase in layers at this rate.
Details are at www.mkwventures.com with multiple reports
+ Each layer increase brings significant cost reduction
+ Costs are significantly reduced each year for each existing technology (efficiency)
+ QLC is modeled at 22-23% cheaper than TLC
Overall, this leads to Gbyte cost reduction (these costs include package, assembly, test) over the next 10 years: