We just updated our models for 3D NAND, (and DRAM, 3D Xpoint). The results show major impact from 64L shipments
- Includes wafer cost for capacity added in new or existing factory
- Includes test cost and packaging cost
- Includes up to date yields
- Includes cost as it is ramping (not fully loaded) and at maturity
- Includes impact of string stacking and CMOS under the array
Results:
- 64L provides 30%+ cost reduction at mature yields.
- 3D overall and 64L in particular is a major cost reduction. We have the margins, Costs, prices to back this up. Don't believe the people saying its too expensive. The data is clear
- The 3D wafer cost is much higher than 2D NAND. Some people have said it doesn't use advanced lithography so it is cheaper. They are unclear on the details of output per tool and per fab. But the bit output and scaling more than compensates for increased wafer cost!
- Differences between companies on CUA, string stacking, Charge trap, and die size are all taken into account.
- 64L is where all companies go ALL IN with 3D NAND. this will provide significant bit output increase and cost reduction.
See our presentations at Flash Memory Summit or call us for More information
